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发表于 2020-8-23 08:31:11 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
[study group is pressed]
Authoritative personage, came one year in the name that People's Daily front page has appeared 3 times in the past.
Every appear when authoritative personage, basic it is similar configuration: Article of People's Daily front page + 2 edition full page (most edition) . The member that study the group of the group people install be clear to the layout of the People's Daily at the heart, know such configuration certainly, representing infrequent heavy visual range to spend.
Last year on May 25, this year on January 4, today, authoritative personage appears 3 times, responded to the heat problem about economy. Field of global public opinion can know from inside this arrangement of different common, this 3 authoritative personages that talk about economic heat, if telling sentence an authority.
Compare before, the response space of this authoritative personage is longer, exceed 10 thousand words. Put in " 935 " of the bureau year look below big setting, do not have deep idea.
This article, the person that care Chinese economy is read surely.
The People's Daily interviews authoritative personage this, asked 5 questions. If you are right before personage of special interview authority has impression, also be for the first time " 5 ask authoritative public figure " .
5 problems are respectively --
How does economic situation look?
How is macroscopical adjusting control dry?
How is reform of sex of supply side structure pushed?
How to anticipate government does?
How is economic risk prevented?
The friend of familiar economy knows, these are the crucial questions of instantly.
The problem is interested in which, jump to the It is a pleasure to be the first to read an artical or see a film. below relevant question directly.
Open bureau head season to ask general trends
-- authoritative personage talks about current China economy
This year is to build decide the issue of the battle of comparatively well-off society in the round level and " 935 " of a bureau year, also be the assault fortified positions that pushs reform of sex of supply side structure year. First quarter, face daedal domestic and international situation, our country realized economic progress, structure to optimize, what the people's livelihood improves is better a bureau, also face contradiction of a series of deep administrative levels and problem at the same time. How to look to adjusting medium Chinese economy, how dry? Our newspaper reporter interviewed authoritative personage solely again recently, feel pulse for Chinese economy interrogation.
One, how does economic situation look?
■ the overall state that economy runs is accorded with anticipate, some window are not bad at anticipating. But the inherent contradiction that economy runs did not alleviate, a few new issues also are exceeded anticipate. Use very hard " make a good beginning " " Indian summer " wait for simple idea to try to describe
■ integrated judgement, our country economy moves cannot be U model, cannot be V more model, however L go situation. This L it is a phase, can not go 9 years
■ " remove one condition " for " into two paces " . Potential of our country economy sufficient, tenacity strong, room for manoeuvre is big, although be not stimulated, rate also does not fall where to go
■ pick up to a few economic norms, do not want light up with pleasure; To be issued to lower levels of a few economic norms, also fasten panic-stricken
Ask: This year first quarter, our country GDP grows 6.7% compared to the same period, still move in reasonable interval, good anticipate at the market. In the meantime, a few otherer economic norms also appears apparently warm color. Somebody thinks, chinese economy came true " make a good beginning " , somebody considers as entered " Indian summer " , have more hopeful person think Chinese economy already sole, will present U model invert. Do this explain economy grew big trend to produce change? Short-term to Chinese economy the long-term trend in mixing, what is your judgement?
Authoritative personage: Look always, open the economic situation of the bureau this year smooth. The overall state that economy runs is accorded with anticipate, some window are not bad at anticipating. But, the inherent contradiction that economy runs did not alleviate, a few new issues also are exceeded anticipate. Accordingly, use very hard " make a good beginning " " Indian summer " wait for simple idea to try to describe. How to look after all? Still want to hold to the doctrine that everything has two aspects, still want to combine development phase and international setting to look.
From first quarter the situation looks, the side with our steady hope, lived firmly, some return what occurrence expect is less than to pick up even. GDP grows 6.7% first quarter, obtain employment situation is overall and stable, dweller income grows smoothly. Economic banking venture is overall can accuse, social overall situation is stable. Price of partial industrial product picks up somewhat, industrial business benefit by fall turn litre; Fixed assets investment is accelerated, project of new go into operation grows considerably; Estate market supply and marketing two flourishing, go inventory is quickened apparently.
The respect that we hope to enter, also had new progress. Proportion of service line of business continues to promote, condition of new pattern, new job eagerly emerge in large numbers, the product of content of a few high additional costs, hi-tech grows quickly, dweller consumption upgrades ceaselessly, "51 " travel of small country length a holiday is hot, long triangle, bead trigonometry get used to the new normal state, area that pays attention to innovation of demand analysis, pursuit and quality benefit actively, the stability that economy grows is strengthened. Especially departmental door is opposite various places the understanding of importance of reform of sex of supply side structure rises ceaselessly, according to center the demand begins the work actively, effect is being shown stage by stage.
However, undeniable, the inherent contradiction that we are faced with has not been solved at all, a few new issues also are exposed somewhat. "Firm " the foundation basically still is relied on " old way " , invest namely pull move, pressure of balance of income and expenses of partial area finance is greater, economic risk produces probability to rise. Especially investment of civilian battalion business drops considerably, estate bubble, superfluous produce can, debt of bad loan, place, stock market, collect city, debt to collect money city, illegally wait for a risk to order increase. A few commercialize degree the area with low end of inferior, industry, single construction, pressure of economic be issued to lower levels still is being increased, obtain employment problem is highlighted, the society is contradictory somewhat aggravate. Accordingly, basically contradicting in what be faced with is structural sex is not periodic circumstance falls, "Enter " just be " firm " basis. "Enter " , solve economy to run problem of sex of medium supply side, structure, system sex namely, this needs time, still lie at present start period, new power still is carried do not remove crossbeam.
Judge integratedly, our country economy moves cannot be U model, cannot be V more model, however L go situation.
What I should emphasize is, this L it is a phase, can not go 9 years. Henceforth a few years, total demand is low confuse and produce can superfluous coexisted pattern appears to be changed at all hard, economic growth resembles impossibly previously in that way, once pick up,can go up continuously and achieve fast growth a few years one after another. "Remove one condition " for " into two paces " . We are confident to development foreground of China, potential of our country economy sufficient, tenacity strong, room for manoeuvre is big, although be not stimulated, rate also does not fall where to go. To this, must inside change at the heart, outside change at going. Pick up to a few economic norms, do not want light up with pleasure; To be issued to lower levels of a few economic norms, also fasten panic-stricken.
■ differentiation is economic progress is inevitable. Some resource begin to seek new site, this generated innovation; Some is slower, still stay in former office to waiting to be being boiled, calculate on when " geomantic reach my home by turns "
■ fall in new normal state, we need to optimize resource configuration most, breed new power, form new structure, this means differentiation to had been jumped over more quickly
■ no matter be area, industry or enterprise, always one part is in " 28 law " get in differentiation " 8 " advantage, show itself, foreground light
Ask: In economic get warm again after a cold spell while, we also notice, trend of current economy moving become divided heals advantage is clear, look forward to of economy of foreland of the eastpart part is firm pick up momentum is powerful, but it is difficult that the economy of a few resources province still compares northeast and center-west region, dispatches from foreign news agency is called " two worlds " . Do this kind walk along situation become divided to a what signal transmit?
Authoritative personage: Differentiation is economic progress is inevitable.
Below market economy condition, resource often is centered to high income domain, occurrence industry turns a tide with compose, after period of time, can form produce can superfluous, produce excessive competition, super profit disappears. Right now, some resource begin to seek new site, this generated innovation; Some is slower, still stay in former office to waiting to be being boiled, calculate on when " geomantic reach my home by turns " . The differentiation trend that these two kinds of circumstances form, it is the rule makes like that.
Below new normal state, we need to optimize resource configuration most, breed new power, form new structure, this means differentiation to had been jumped over more quickly. No matter be area, industry or enterprise, always one part is in " 28 law " get in differentiation " 8 " advantage, show itself, foreground light. Still have one share, savor suffering, but also derive lesson, knew how to should do next. I look also is not what evildoing.
Since reforming and opening, our country economy begins to quicken differentiation, the process is here medium, the area that emerge in large numbers gives a batch to have energy, competitive industry business, famous brand that makes noisy. After international banking crisis, world economy become divided is accelerated, our country enters new normal state, economic become divided of home is farther aggravate. Last year, analysing in the center of put forward when economic situation first quarter, always get used to new normal state actively, value innovation and quality beneficial result, development posture is better; Conversely, pressure is greater. This trend still is in this year continuance, be in even aggravate, it is really " a few joy a few anxious " . In the future that can foreknow, in economic become divided, our country will appear to have the area of vigor, industry that has international competition ability more and company more ceaselessly, but some areas, industry and business day also are met more and more provoking. With its suffering is boiled, be inferior to hardworking. The cadre masses of these areas, industry and enterprise is abandoning now illusion, free-standing self-improvement, close to reform stresses innovation actively, strive try hard to catch up.
2, how does macroscopical adjusting control work?
■ promote macroscopical economy health to develop, the way of supply side and demand side wants to use, but in different level, it is different that side key and exert oneself are spent
■ reach currently henceforth a period, supply side is main contradiction, reform of sex of supply side structure must be strengthened, must regard main attack as direction. The move since demand side builds environmental action to resolve main contradiction, investment is outspread can measurable, cannot excessive, anything but but exceed one's duties and meddle in others' affairs, primary and secondary is not divided
Ask: From first quarter the circumstance looks, fixed assets invests pick up, developed a key firmly to economic look forward to to lead action. A kind of viewpoint thinks, short-term stimulation is good still with, the canal is used, continue to use even. How do you look to this? How does the total fundamental key that does good economy work, total train of thought hold?
Authoritative personage: This is everybody a question with more comment, also be the problem that pays close attention to highly on international. Can have held this issue, affect already at the moment, involve again long-term.
Promote macroscopical economy health to develop, the way of supply side and demand side wants to use, but in different level, it is different that side key and exert oneself are spent. Reach currently henceforth a period, the most important is correct put forward in the center of understanding " enlarging total demand moderately while, exert oneself strengthens sex of supply side structure to reform " this word, that is to say, supply side is main contradiction, reform of sex of supply side structure must be strengthened, must regard main attack as direction. The move since demand side builds environmental action to resolve main contradiction, investment is outspread can measurable, cannot excessive, anything but but exceed one's duties and meddle in others' affairs, primary and secondary is not divided.
Do good economy work, must work according to central economy the decision-making deploy of the conference, 18 when carry out a party seriously 5 in plenary meeting spirit, firm establish and carry out implement the innovation, harmonious, green, open, development concept that share, insist to advance steadily working total fundamental key, insist to execute " macroscopical policy wants firm, industrial policy wants to allow, microcosmic policy should live, reform policy wants solid, social policy should hold a bottom in the palm " overall train of thought. Current, fulfil good above new concept, total fundamental key, old thinking, macroscopical policy should highlight 3 requirements:
It is to enlarge total demand moderately, insist to implement vigorous finance policy and firm monetary policy, pay attention to hold key, rhythm, strength.
2 it is adamantine give priority to a line in order to push reform of sex of supply side structure, fault of structure of correctional supply and demand matchs with a view to to configure twist with element, fulfil in the round " go producing can, go inventory, go lever, fall cost, fill short board " task of 5 big focal points.
3 it is to pay attention to guide good progress to anticipate, strengthen the confidence that each respect grows to economy.
Should accomplish in the job " two ensure " :
It is to ensure the central policy that already decided not go out of form, changeless form. Want ground of comprehensive, accurate, one hundred percent to implement spirit of conference of central economy job, firm monetary policy is about truly dovish, vigorous finance policy is about truly active, the masterstroke that sex of supply side structure reforms is about more outstanding.
2 it is to ensure center policy air plant. Emphasize for many times in the center of, one branch office, fulfil 9 minutes. Should carry on a hammer the spirit of the nail, the economic policy this year is genuine be born. Expand to always need sue for peace to advance reform of sex of supply side structure to already got each just are approbated extensively moderately, have solid and forward stride only, ability solves the difficulty problem that restricts economic society progress, make economic situation ceaseless forward good way is changed.
■ the tree cannot grow the sky, tall lever brings high risk necessarily, control is bad to can cause systematization banking crisis, bring about economy to enjoy growth, let soup of bubble of common people deposit even
■ also cannot do not have necessary promote economic growth forcedly with the measure that imposes lever. The most dangerous, it is highbrow pursuit " make the best of both worlds " , longing for sugar cane both ends sweet, not dare decisive make choice
■ we made clear the stock market, policy orientaton that collects city, building city, return to respective functional fixed position namely, respect respective development law, cannot serve as the measure that maintains growth simply
■ maintain the strategy to decide force, do more administer thoroughly, weigh the matter in the effect a permanent cure, avoid to use " flood flooding " outspread method hits strong heart needle to economy, cause form smoke into smother of the economy after short-term excitement passes
■ should had accused " degree " , both neither overdoes, also prevent not as good as. Although way is right, policy suit one, once had exerted oneself to do sth. fierce, not only short of expects an end, still can lead to a risk
Ask: The report first quarter shows, a few problems are getting dissolving, another some of problem shows symptom again; Economic working face is faced " be in a dilemma " " much more difficult " and " one fruit is much because of " " one because of much fruit " complexity. So, where should be the exert oneself dot of macroscopical adjusting control put after all?
Authoritative personage: Common saying is told, "Domestic home has the classics that reads aloud hard originally " . Different country has different difficulty, different period also has different difficulty, this is very normal. The problem depends on how the property with accurate difficult judgement, adopt true measure to try to solve. Since reforming and opening, we are held to " want drive only not coast, method always compares difficulty much " concept, the calm is faced up to overcome difficulty difficultly, actively, be brave in to enter close seize narrow pass, climb slope to cross bank, bit by bit assault fortified positions breaks ice, every time development expands, one pace walked over.
Current, exist really a few " be in a dilemma " or " much more difficult " problem. The most outstanding performance is, on one hand economy faces pressure of be issued to lower levels, hypostatic economy is tall on the other hand lever, if be eager to overcoming pressure of be issued to lower levels, leverage can rise further, how to do? That is about the property of concrete analysis problem, seeing which problem is crucial point more.
Year after year of gross of our country labour force decreases, industrial structure is in optimize adjust, although economy appears relatively substantially be issued to lower levels, social obtain employment also can maintain overall stability, what is more,the rather that our country economy also where is be issued to lower levels less than! So in the center of emphasize all the time not in order to add fast by the hero. But, lever question is different. The tree cannot grow the sky, tall lever brings high risk necessarily, control is bad to can cause systematization banking crisis, bring about economy to enjoy growth, let soup of bubble of common people deposit even, that drove sb. to his death. So compare, with respect to the exert oneself that knows the work the dot should be put where, know to also cannot be done not have necessary promote economic growth forcedly with the measure that imposes lever, "Be in a dilemma " also became " one difficult " . The most dangerous, it is highbrow pursuit " make the best of both worlds " , longing for sugar cane both ends sweet, not dare decisive make choice. For instance, a few countries ever implemented exciting policy for a long time, accumulated very big bubble, the result chooses to go up in policy, or manages money comfortable allow to shoot up by prices, or tightens up money to make bubble burst, that ability is true " be in a dilemma " , the left and right sides is not!
According to this train of thought, we made clear the stock market, policy orientaton that collects city, building city, return to respective functional fixed position namely, respect respective development law, cannot serve as the measure that maintains growth simply. The stock market wants base oneself upon to protect investor rights and interests function, adequately at restoring market financing, the adjustment that develops market mechanism adequately action, strengthen issue, retreat city, trade wait for construction of fundamental sex system, cogent strengthen the market to superintend, raise information to reveal quality, severe blow inside trades, share price operates wait for behavior. Collect city to want base oneself upon at raising balance of payments of monetary policy autonomy, play self-adjusting mechanism, in maintain while exchange rate is stabilized basically, form stage by stage run a mechanism for foundation, two-way float, bouncy exchange rate with market supply and demand. The house lives to the person, this fixed position cannot deviate, should change through the person's town " go inventory " , and should not pass add lever " go inventory " , perfect view of central Guan Hong, place to change adjusting control policy for the difference of main body stage by stage.
Found exert oneself place, had held even on the operation at 2 o'clock:
It is to avoid short-term change behaviour. Global economy should go from inside international banking crisis, need experiences longer process. Our country economy enters new normal state, structural adjustment is one circles the bank that goes nevertheless, it is one exerts oneself to do sth. continuously, for a long time is the protracted battle of result. Below such situation, must maintain the strategy to decide force, want to establish confidence, the determination of sturdy conquer difficulty, maintain the patience of water constantly dripping wears holes in stone, do more administer thoroughly, weigh the matter in the effect a permanent cure, avoid to use " flood flooding " outspread method hits strong heart needle to economy, cause form smoke into smother of the economy after short-term excitement passes.
2 it is to avoid not measurable. No matter be demand policy or supply policy, no matter be monetary policy or finance policy, structure policy, no matter be development policy, reform policy or social policy, want had accused " degree " , both neither overdoes, also prevent not as good as. Although way is right, policy suit one, once had exerted oneself to do sth. fierce, not only short of expects an end, still can lead to a risk. For instance, restore estate market to move normally, take out a few malapropos administration measures are necessary, but if do great strength to stimulate, make foam necessarily, this lesson must derive.
3, how is reform of sex of supply side structure pushed?
■ advancing sex of supply side structure to reform is to be mixed currently the masterstroke that economy of our country of a period will work henceforth, look toward far, also be us income trap waits in spanning " lifeline " , it is a battle that loses not to rise
■ at present, a few plan shape basically already. Next in the center of even special subject research, drive as soon as possible carry out fulfil
■ " 5 big jobs " it is design of a system, every task very arduous. Look from particular operation, the meal should have readily readily, the road wants one pace to go
Ask: To reform of sex of supply side structure, international society height is evaluated, domestic society pays close attention to generally. Whether did this reform already form the working plan of package maturity? From first quarter economy runs a circumstance to look, what are the focal point that advances reform of sex of supply side structure next and difficulty?
Authoritative personage: Put forward in the center of, advancing sex of supply side structure to reform is to be mixed currently the masterstroke that economy of our country of a period will work henceforth, look toward far, also be us income trap waits in spanning " lifeline " , it is a battle that loses not to rise. Look from the whole world, more and more countries realise, structural sex reform just is to walk out of at the moment the basic strategy of predicament, but this is to need to pay price. The chronic illness that western country much party is in office, do not have a few politicians to dare to put into practice truly, the result is " the heart thinks " and " the thing won'ts do " . We have system advantage, must form consensus, firm to be determined, without a stop goes ahead, leave no stone unturned is caught fulfil, solid as see effect.
Since last year, to supply side the gender reforms the structure to ponder over specific practice from theory in the center of, made comprehensive profundity elaborate, from design carrying a layer on the head, policy measure till key task, undertook entire chain deploy. The group of leader of central finance and economics that held January this year is dozenth on second conference, special subject studied sex of supply side structure reforms train of thought, put forward " 5 make clear Hunan " , what is making clear Hunan current situation namely, what is making clear Hunan direction and purpose, make clear Hunan wants what to do after all, make clear Hunan who will work, make clear how Hunan does.
According to such requirement, central each branch is intense, serious and meticulous begin investigation and study, make specific job plan. Current, a few plan shape basically already, specific aim measure of more outstanding, policy is more specific, maneuverability is stronger also. Next in the center of even special subject research, drive as soon as possible carry out fulfil. In the meantime, each district is active also and active begin the work, the sex of supply side structure that released this province Guangdong, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanxi in succession reforms scheme. Many enterprises already stepped materiality pace, control blind and outspread impulse actively, contractive battlefront, outstanding advocate course of study, some already from " decrease a quantity to carry qualitative " turn for " the quantity is qualitative double litre " .
The 5 big jobs that sex of supply side structure reforms are design of a system, every task very arduous, there is associated and complementary effect between each task, want making overall plans and take all factors into consideration, trends is optimized, advance actively. Look from particular operation, the meal should have readily readily, the road wants one pace to go, each phase also should have different exert oneself place. Since the beginning of the year, a few policy already came on stage in succession, for instance, fall the measure of cost is ceaseless and substantial, fill short board strength is increased ceaselessly. Below one paragraph, dissolve superfluous produce can, deal with " corpse enterprise " wait for measure to also can be advanced to depth. Of this job " subtration " color is thicker, involve person and money inevitably, namely obtain employment and debt problem, difficulty and demand are higher.
■ our purpose is to reduce administrative intervention morely, let market mechanism had produced conclusive effect morely. But " Jie Ling still must fasten bell person " , reduce administrative interpose to cannot leave governmental ego revolution
■ the domain with those better without play of mechanism of administrative interpose, market itself, did not gesticulate again
Ask: The beginning of the year up to now, go producing can, go inventory begins to be at the beginning of a few places show result, but it is important that administration intervenes amid is taking on part, initiate a few debates from this, even public opinion is oppugned " go producing can " be " one knife is cut " " do apportion " " planned economy the same old stuff " . In process of reform of sex of supply side structure, is administrative step necessary? How ought to be the relation of government and market placed?
Authoritative personage: Here wants the concern issue of li clear purpose and method. Our purpose is to reduce administrative intervention morely, let market mechanism had produced conclusive effect morely. But what method to rely on to you can accomplish this? "Jie Ling still must fasten bell person " , reduce administrative interpose to cannot leave governmental ego revolution. For instance, decrease right " corpse enterprise " allowance, do not rely on administrative order, sheet to rely on the market to go?
Of course, those itself develop better field without mechanism of administrative interpose, market, did not gesticulate again. For instance, consumable domain commercializes degree tall, competition is relatively sufficient, the market can go automatically quiet, it is completely OK that they go be not produced rely on market adjustment. A word, no matter use which kinds of method, final it is to develop the market effectively to configure medium decisive action and action of better play government in resource, this is the crucial point that advances reform of sex of supply side structure to must have held.
Finish " 5 big jobs " , various government should serve as actively, serve as actively, be the first as:
Go producing can, each district should make clear particular job and specific target, increase all sorts of doorsills such as environmental protection, specific power consumption, quality, standard, safety to admittance, system is built and execute the law strength; Deal with " corpse enterprise " , this " ablactation " " ablactation " , should break borrow break borrow, unplug stoutly " woven hose " and " lung ventilator " .
Go lever, should be in macroscopical go up not to turn on the water flooding, in microcosmic go up to break rigid cash in order, deal with to collect money illegally lawfully elephant waiting for chaos, order of cogent and normative market.
Go inventory, want to increase census register system to reform strength, build the system of form a complete set such as the wealth tax that perfect peasant worker worker goes into town, land.
Fall cost, be about to owe integral tax fall, collect fees inconsequently cancel, examine and approve administration decrease come down.
Fill short board, the essence that is about to pay attention to deficient assault fortified positions allows to spend, solid advance innovation of science and technology and zoology civilization construction, perfect infrastructure is built " money comes from where, where to cast to go " system mechanism.
■ short-term inside, the likelihood is put in contradiction between steady growth and tone structure. Processing is good " firm " with " tone " relation, the key is to had held " degree " , master correct methodology, deepen reform to serve as main grasper
■ support is superfluous produce the short-term economy that can support to grow to cannot last not only, and susceptive anguish compares take out these yield can want bigger, painful time the meeting is longer
■ should add decrease by divide and use. Disable in take out produce can while, also want to increase available supply, breed new development power
■ old do not go, new do not come. Area of quite a few includes a few center-west region, feeling letting a person " person should not look at with new eyes 3 days "
Ask: Produce to going now can, go lever has some of doubt, think to exist to conflict certainly with steady growth, can increase pressure of economic be issued to lower levels, how does this problem look? The market goes quiet, from the back whether receive so that live receive well?
Authoritative personage: If where logic is short-term,the essence of this problem is the long-term relationship in mixing.
In the long run, steady growth and tone structure are consistent, structural adjustment is the main power that economy can grow continuously and safeguard, go producing can, go lever conduces to a structure optimizing the long-term and healthy progress with economy. To this, everybody has very strong consensus. But be in short-term inside, the likelihood is put in contradiction between steady growth and tone structure. For example, go producing can meet probably the GDP that affects a few places and finance income, go lever can make dominance of a few risks is changed. But if do not go, do not say not to live firmly for a long time, short-term effect also worse and worse, "Corpse enterprise " the meeting is increasing, debt accumulates heavier more, venture of aggravate finance banking. Processing is good " firm " with " tone " relation, the key is to had held " degree " , master correct methodology, deepen reform to serve as main grasper.
Must make clear, support is superfluous produce the short-term economy that can support to grow to cannot last not only, and susceptive anguish compares take out these yield can want bigger, painful time the meeting is longer. For instance, a few businesses that produce can superfluous field, deficit is increased, the wage increase that default, the bank is very painful, the worker is very painful also, and pull more painful more. How to do? Long painful be inferior to short painful. Undertake to these enterprises " clear dish " , can release a land, credit to wait already rare lack resource, also make the worker of these enterprises is in bring into social security, accept new post walks up after grooming, see new hope.
Advance reform of sex of supply side structure to want to add decrease by divide and use. Disable in take out produce can while, also want to increase available supply, breed new development power. This needs to be determined already, also need to insist the effort of green hill, honest policy. Carry out a proof, old do not go, new do not come. Area of quite a few includes a few center-west region, in this round of development, be pregnant with large quantities of one new power, show vibrant picture, feeling letting a person " person should not look at with new eyes 3 days " . Nevertheless, burden of the contradiction with specific old place, history is greater, short-term adjust get effective hard really, but also must step pace, "With its one should take practical steps to achieve one's aims, be inferior to retreating and spin " .
4, how to anticipate government does?
■ firm expectant key is firm policy, cannot shake will be placed
■ should be good at undertaking policy communicate, sex of the look up before strengthening guides, raise diaphaneity, decrease to read a space by accident, seasonable correct an error, avoid one Jing one suddenly, do not do " midnight chicken cries "
■ our achievement and inadequacy are placed over. Cannot say to overdo to achievement, to the problem cannot turn a blind eye to, even cover up one's errors, can contuse otherwise confidence, destroy anticipate
Ask: These a few years, the anticipation that develops prospect to economy is not very stable, upbeat mood and pessimistic view coexist. See from which, insufficient still to the thorough research of economic current situation and market action, exist " the viewpoint is cranky " phenomenon. Below this kind of circumstance, how ought to see essence through the phenomenon, guide good society psychology to anticipate?
Authoritative personage: Anticipate be not out of thin air, also not be to have nothing to do difficulties, it comes from reality, affecting reality again. Below condition of socialist market economy, macroscopical adjusting control is to anticipate management substantially. After international banking crisis, world economy is more complex and changeful, bring about anticipate uncertainty is increased. Below this kind of circumstance, we should be paid attention to more strengthen anticipate guide.
Anticipate how firmly? The key is firm policy.
Above all, big politics guiding principle cannot shake, core is to hold to system of Chinese characteristic socialism, hold to " a center, two main point " main line. This, had never changed in the center of, and reiterate for many times, connotation tells clearer more, departmental door wants each district accurate hold, one hundred percent falls to real point.
Next, macroscopical economic policy cannot shake will be placed. The policy that pushs reform of sex of supply side structure is oriented clearer, fulfil stronger, it is better that the market anticipates. Conversely, if we return the old road with exciting demand, the market can worry about hesitant, not know what to do.
The 3rd, want to be good at undertaking policy communicate, sex of the look up before strengthening guides, raise diaphaneity, say clear policy end and meaning, decrease to read a space by accident, seasonable correct an error, avoid one Jing one suddenly, do not do " midnight chicken cries " .
Still have, the reliability that raises public opinion guiding is very fundamental also, must be practical and realistic, take hold good sense of property. Our achievement and inadequacy are placed over, proper openly conduct propaganda anticipates to guiding, carry brace up confidence is necessary, but, cannot say to overdo to achievement, to the problem cannot turn a blind eye to, even cover up one's errors, can contuse otherwise confidence, destroy anticipate. To learned, professional different opinion, want to allow each airs his own views, encourage spread out from professional level discuss, the truth jumps over argue bright, anticipate to also arrive since the meeting to stability promote action actively.
■ not only should agree to work, dare work, even able, meeting works, this develops 3 better with respect to need " crucial minority " enthusiasm, initiative, creativity
■ let entrepreneur have already " constant is produced " have again " perseverance " . Build " close " and " clear " new-style politics business concerns, regard entrepreneur as people on one's own side, make them sufficient experience right equality, opportunity equality, regular equality. Carry out in a few specific policy on, turn over old Zhang not blindly, the person that make do poineering work has safe feeling
Ask: In current economy big environment falls, the person's effect is more main, especially " 3 kinds of people " , namely talent of entrepreneur, innovation, various cadre. Look in you, is the enthusiasm of these groups aroused? How to form the resultant force that promotes reform of sex of supply side structure in the round?
Authoritative personage: The person is the most active ingredient in productivity. Suit and lead economy new normal state, not only want us to agree to work, dare work, even we will be able, dry, this produces the enthusiasm of talent of entrepreneur, innovation, various cadre, initiative, creativity better with respect to need. Now, advance reform of sex of supply side structure to let everybody have way, had a hope, working enthusiasm is taller and taller, can able, dry person is increasing, effect also is met more and more apparent. In the meantime, also want to see, pay no attention to solution, incommensurate phenomenon to still exist, develop afore-mentioned 3 " crucial minority " action, do a large number of works even.
Entrepreneur is to optimize the resource configuration, dominant power that enhances supply system to get used to ability. Push reform of sex of supply side structure, earnestly must develop the innovation drive of entrepreneur, include wide generous civilian battalion entrepreneur. The most crucial now is to pass protective property right, intellectual property, make entrepreneur has already " constant is produced " have again " perseverance " . Should build " close " and " clear " new-style politics business concerns, regard entrepreneur as people on one's own side, make them sufficient experience right equality, opportunity equality, regular equality. Carry out in a few specific policy on, turn over old Zhang not blindly, the person that make do poineering work has safe feeling.
5, how is economic risk prevented?
■ the stock market of beginning happening collects city this year queasy, report gives certain frangibility. Should prevent a market this kind " exceed tone " behavior understands simply is the short-term wave motion that the spec brings only, and should seek an account from the immanent frangibility of whole money market
■ fall in feasibility condition, should abandon thoroughly try to accelerate economy through loose money raise the quota growth, do big denominator to fall the illusion of lever. Put the risk hidden danger that be in to of all kinds money market, superintendency branch wants to cooperate closely, understand a situation, had done beforehand case
Ask: Last year up to now, banking profit glides and bad capital rate rises to get attention quite. Capital market also produces bigger wave motion for a time first quarter. Face pressure of economic be issued to lower levels, we whether defend do not produce systematization the bottom line of regional banking venture?
Authoritative personage: Finance is the core of modern economy, this core gave an issue overall situation of meeting be a burden on, meeting be a burden on comes true comparatively well-offly in the round. Although whole of venture of our country banking can accuse, especially bank system is overall fight risk ability stronger, but the stock market of beginning happening collects city this year queasy, also mirror a certain frangibility. Should prevent a market this kind " exceed tone " behavior understands simply is the short-term wave motion that the spec brings only, and should seek an account from the immanent frangibility of whole money market. Among them, tall lever is " original sin " , it is the fountainhead of financial high risk, below tall lever setting, collect the metropolis such as risk of city of city, the stock market, debt, building city, bank credit to rise, processing is bad, bagatelle can become a major issue.
Current, the most important is according to sex of supply side structure reform asks, active and reliable push lever. Below the case that using monetary dilate to stimulate economy to grow limit effect to decrease successively continuously, should abandon thoroughly try to accelerate economy through loose money raise the quota growth, do big denominator to fall the illusion of lever. Put the risk hidden danger that be in to of all kinds money market, finance superintends a branch to want to cooperate closely, understand a situation, had done beforehand case. At present bank bad Zhang is in ascendant trend, it is the economic problem inevitable report in financial department. Want us to be brave in to face only, answer actively, be not masked and protracted risk, the result is done not have so terrible.
■ the company that cannot help really to those, what should shut is determined shut, should go bankrupt what should go bankrupt lawfully, do not do at every turn " debt turns " , do not do " pull Lang Pei " type recombines, in that way cost is too high, deceive oneself as well as others, morning and evening is a great weight
■ " protect a person not to protect look forward to " , personnel find a place for as deal with " corpse enterprise " , dissolve superfluous produce can Chongzhongzhi is heavy. Can groom groom, can turn of hillock turn hillock, cannot turn really of hillock should do solid do the delicate work that hold a bottom in the palm
Ask: Accompany " go producing can " , come off sentry duty of occurrence staff of partial area and company, this is in steel coal industry is more outstanding, have event of sex of occurrence group of a few places even. Excuse me " go producing can " whether can bring concussion to obtain employment, cause the risk that affects social stability then? Should how does appropriate deal with?
Authoritative personage: Stabilize and enlarge the main goal that obtain employment is macroscopical economic policy. From eye antecedent condition looks, condition of our country obtain employment is overall it is firm, did not appear to fluctuate greatly. In the meantime, also exist problem of sex of a few deep hierarchy, as industrial structural adjustment, high skill talent is in short supply, the simple able-bodied person with poorer skill somewhat superfluous, the labour market is being developed adjust a function, but more essential is to strengthen the skill to laborer to groom. The issue with the most outstanding domain of current obtain employment is, right " corpse enterprise " deal with, the adjustment of can superfluous to producing industry can cause dominance of pressure of come off sentry duty to change. The industry of this round of come off sentry duty and area relatively concentration, it is state-owned company for the most part, it is more very among them 40, 50 years old of workers. We should insist to be with the person this, perfect relevant policy, pay attention to working method, go reliable and carefully producing can:
It is adamantine push reform of sex of supply side structure, "Protect a person not to protect look forward to " , be brave in to deal with " corpse enterprise " . We emphasize wanting to hold concurrently more and go bankrupt group, less again liquidation, but the company that cannot help really to those, what should shut is determined shut, should go bankrupt what should go bankrupt lawfully, do not do at every turn " debt turns " , do not do " pull Lang Pei " type recombines, in that way cost is too high, deceive oneself as well as others, morning and evening is a great weight.
2 be those who want a staff find a place for as deal with " corpse enterprise " , dissolve superfluous produce can Chongzhongzhi is heavy. Can groom groom, can turn of hillock turn hillock, cannot turn really of hillock should do solid do the delicate work that hold a bottom in the palm. Want to have humanitarian care, bringing feeling, compare the heart the heart, be considerate is their consider, help them resolve exceedingly vivid difficulty already, aid them to rise again again obtain employment ability. Produce this can superfluous brought one big lesson is, on the distance one round of state-owend enterprise is reformed 10 old hind, state-owend enterprise " overstaffed " still very serious, worker " refuse to come down " " cut into parts do not drop " , the enterprise does society, politics look forward to to be not divided, the problem that company of look forward to does not divide still is highlighted. Reform of epicycle state-owend enterprise must obtain materiality breakthrough in this respect, can face state-owend enterprise building truly market competition, it is oriented contemporary company with quality benefit.
■ think inflationary person is increasing socially, think to connect those who shrink is not little also, each have each reason. Still cannot make conclusions hastily
■ keep alert, the limit that pays close attention to the price closely changes, especially the price of industrial product, consumable, asset and its interaction. Rise in price to partial provision problem, should strengthen tone to match already, safeguard furnishs, also cannot react excessive, disturb price signal
Ask: Since this year, price of fleshy price dish goes high, common people pays close attention to very much, also have anxious. The inflationary risk that how is on guard to appear possibly already is also paid attention to be on guard shrink risk?
Authoritative personage: Handle good price issue, it is the lasting theme of macroscopical adjusting control.
Look from global economy, the United States begins the evidence of alert inflation, and Europe, Japan is being connected instead with all one's strength shrink, the case of rising market country each are different, aggravate of wave motion of heavy goods price. From the point of our country, value circumstances also tends complex. In index of industrial producer producer price (PPI) in descendent process, the price such as rolled steel, coal rebounds apparently. Price index is consumed in the dweller (CPI) below the circumstance of overall stability, price of pork, fresh vegetable rises considerably and still reside after the Spring Festival do not fall high, price of fresh vegetable of this paragraph of time already considerably fall after a rise, pork price suffers " the pig is periodic " the influence may return meeting continuance. In addition, estate of city of line of just a little rises in price faster, the part serves domain price to rise continuously. Face such situation, think inflationary person is increasing socially, think to connect those who shrink is not little also, each have each reason.
Look according to me, still cannot make conclusions hastily. On one hand, produce can superfluous still serious, industrial product value is total descendent trend is changed at all hard temporarily, prices rises generally considerably devoid substance is propped up; On the other hand, market liquidity is ample, dweller consumption ability is exuberant, appear to open the possibility that shrink badly not big also. But, we must keep alert, the limit that pays close attention to the price closely changes, especially industrial product price, consumable price, asset value and its interaction. Rise in price to partial provision problem, should strengthen tone to match already, safeguard furnishs, also cannot react excessive, disturb price signal, to group of urban low income, various government wants policy of seasonable follow-up allowance, had done the work that hold a bottom in the palm.
(Gong Wen of our newspaper reporter makes annals summit Wu Qiu beyond)
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